As the sun rises over the mountains of the Karakoram, casting long shadows across the Nubra Valley in the village of Diskit, 18-year-old Tsewang packs his bags, ready to leave the only home he has ever known. His destination is Delhi, over 1000 kilometres away, to take admission in BA in a college following many of his elders. Tsewang’s story resonates with many young Ladakhis youth migrating, caught between the pull of tradition and the promise of modernity. Guided by my fieldwork experience over 6 months in 2023, this article serves as a reflection of insights into the complex web of aspirations, challenges, and choices within Nubra’s youth as they navigate the decision to migrate.

The aspirations-capabilities model (Carling & Schewel, 2018) suggests that migration depends on both what people want (aspirations) and what they can do (capabilities). Appadurai’s (2004) idea of the “capacity to aspire” sees aspirations as cultural maps that guide people’s choices. Feminist political ecology (Rocheleau et al., 1996) helps us understand how gender shapes access to resources and opportunities. Visions of the future are closely tied to how individuals imagine their relationship to a global imagination (Halvorson 2005; Nayak and Kehily 2008). These theoretical frameworks are considered for understanding Nubra’s youth and its decision-making complexities, interlacing between the agency and structure.

Through my fieldwork experience, I could directly experience how Ladakh’s new status post-2019 as a Union Territory impacts the Ladakh region. New roads cut through ancient landscapes, tourists flock to once-isolated villages, and climate change alters age-old farming patterns. Against this backdrop of change, young people must decide: stay or migrate. This article explores youth aspirations to understand broader social, cultural, and economic changes in Ladakh. It asks: How do young people in Nubra Valley imagine their futures? What factors shape their decisions to migrate or stay? How do these choices reflect and reshape local culture and identity? Exploring these questions, I try to shed light on the processes of social change, cultural reproduction, and identity formation in a rapidly globalising context.

Education emerged as a primary driver of outmigration. Of the 42 youths interviewed, 78% cited better schooling opportunities as their main reason for wanting to leave. Many see degrees from big cities coupled with their Scheduled Tribes (ST) status as key to securing government jobs, which are highly prized for their stability and status. One 19-year-old from Diskit told me, “A BA means nothing in Leh. In Delhi, it’s a passport to a future.” There is a growing disconnect between local realities and youth aspirations. Traditional farming and herding roles are often seen as “backward,” especially among Buddhist youth. This shift in values challenges the status quo as young people increasingly define success in terms of urban, formal-sector employment.

I recall conversing with a group of Balti women in Turtuk, a village near the Line of Control. The stories reveal how gender intersects with ethnicity and geopolitics to shape life chances. Young women often need family approval to leave, while young men have more freedom, reflecting broader patterns of male control over resources and decision-making. Women do most of the daily work in farming households, but men usually control land ownership and financial decisions. This pattern extends to new economic possibilities like tourism. Women in Turtuk run homestays day-to-day, but men often manage the income. These gendered dynamics, driven by patriarchal attitudes, influence migration decisions and outcomes.

Tourism has brought new opportunities and new forms of inequality to Nubra Valley. Many families now run homestays, offering a chance to earn money from visitors. However, this opportunity is not equally available to everyone. Wealthier families with larger houses can easily set up homestays, while poorer families or those who are landless often miss out. Tourism also changes how local culture is presented and perceived. Many visitors seek a “Shangri-La” experience of traditional Buddhist culture, leading to a kind of cultural performance that does not reflect the full diversity of Ladakhi life, especially for Muslim communities. This commodification of culture creates tensions between economic opportunity and cultural realism.

Climate change is reshaping the physical landscape and economic opportunities in Nubra Valley. Glaciers that feed local farms have shrunk by 20% since 2000 (Wangchuk & Sood, 2020), leading to water scarcity and agricultural uncertainty. In Hunder village, I observed how apricot harvests have dropped by half between 2021-2023 due to unpredictable weather. Many young people view this as a signal that farming no longer provides a future, so they seek opportunities elsewhere. Some farmers are adjusting to the new demand by growing other crops that will appeal to tourists, such as broccoli. These, however, require much more water and put pressure on the traditional irrigation systems. Such environmental changes put pressure to transform the economy and redefine cultural interactions with the land.

The military presence in Nubra shapes the local economy and youth aspirations largely due to its proximity to disputed borders. Many young men work as porters or drivers supporting army operations, earning around ₹25,000 monthly. While lucrative, this work is not always stable or safe. Reliance on military-related jobs creates a form of economic dependence and exposes young people to a very different culture compared to village life. During my fieldwork, I observed how this military economy influences young people’s perceptions of their community and future, often pulling them away from traditional livelihoods and social structures.

Digital connectivity has dramatically altered how young people in Nubra see the world and how they imagine their futures. Smartphones and social media provide windows to urban life and job opportunities beyond the valley. WhatsApp groups share job postings from Delhi and other cities, while Instagram showcases glossy images of urban lifestyles. This digital exposure creates what I term “aspirational dissonance” – a gap between digitally-fuelled dreams and local realities. One 22-year-old returnee told me, “The photos made city life look perfect. However, the reality was so different.” This digital connectivity changes daily spoken language use and cultural identification. In online spaces, youths prefer Hindi or English over Ladakhi and some struggle with traditional Tibetan script.

The story of youth migration from Nubra Valley is not a simple tale of rural exodus. It is a complex negotiation of identity, opportunity, and belonging in a rapidly changing world. The future is, in turn, tied up in hopes and fears expressed by and about young people (Aitken 2001; Cole and Durham 2008; Langevang 2008). Young people like Tsewang are not passively swept along by forces beyond their control. They actively shape their futures, balancing dreams, and real-world constraints. The contemporary moment is fraught with uncertainty and ambiguity (Langevang 2008). Migration decisions are shaped by a mix of educational aspirations, economic pressures, environmental changes, and shifting cultural values. Digital connectivity remakes youth perspectives, sometimes creating a gap between expectations and local validities.

There are broader questions of development, identity, and sustainability in mountain regions worldwide to be answered. As youth navigate between tradition and modernity, they are not just seeking personal opportunities but locating themselves in a position of ambivalence, mourning a romanticised past even as they disassociate themselves from a narrative of intergenerational transition. They are actively shaping the future of their homeland, challenging established norms, and forming new paths in a globalised world. Their stories underline the complex interplay between local traditions and global forces and the central role of youth agency in processes of social change.

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Mohammad Asim is a Doctoral Fellow in Anthropology at the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Gandhinagar.